Synthesis of the Brazilian economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Sep 2020 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Paula Magalhães, Bruno Cordeiro and Marcelo Gazzano

At the start of September, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases reached 4 million, slightly over 6 months after the first recorded case of contagion. Only the United States surpasses that number, with 6.1 million people infected on the same date. The good news is that the first signs have appeared of deceleration of the number of deaths, after a plateau lasting more than 3 months when the 7-day moving average was near or above 1 thousand deaths a day. According to Imperial College of London, the average transmission rate of the virus (Rt) has fallen from 1 to 0.94, indicating a slower pace of propagation in Brazil. The level of public respect for social isolation rules and the precautions necessary for reopening of the sectors that are most prone to contagion will determine the speed of contagion and maintenance of the recent deceleration trend. The improvident emergency relief program established has serious problems of design and implementation, posing huge fiscal and political challenges to the country. It is generating higher consumption in the short run, increasing the popular feeling of well-being and the president’s approval ratings, but has caused growing uncertainty about the recovery of the economy and the solvency of the government in the medium and long term.

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