Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 31 May 2022 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Paula Magalhães and Diego Brandao

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, it is evident that its costs and risks are affecting not only those on the battlefields, but the entire world. Since the start of the war, the international price of wheat has risen by more than 40% and of corn by nearly 30%. Russian naval control of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov has interrupted grain exports, threatening the world with a possible food shortage. Putin is demanding relaxation of the sanctions in return for releasing food shipments. And leaders of Western nations are striving to find a solution to the problem. In particular, the higher food prices are fanning the already high and persistent inflation in Brazil, corroding the purchasing power of wages and the cash transfers to the poor. This situation is counteracting the political benefit pursued by the government as the main strategy to reduce the large advantage shown by Lula in the most recent opinion polls.

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