Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Jul 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

Since the death toll from Covid-19 exceeded the unenviable milestone of 500 thousand, positive signs have emerged due to the progress of vaccination. Fortunately, the threat of a third contagion wave did not materialize: the peak of daily deaths surpassed 2 thousand in the 7-day moving average on June 19th, since when it has declined steadily, starting July at 1.5 thousand. The Senate investigation of the government’s handling of the crisis has continued to reveal details of the reckless stance of Bolsonaro in dealing with the pandemic, eroding his approval ratings. Accusations of corruption in the purchase of vaccines will be examined in the next few weeks, spurring both street protests and support for impeachment. The economy continues to benefit from the external winds, especially the elevation of commodity prices, but economic growth is uneven, inflation is rising and unemployment remains stubbornly high. These factors have temporarily reduced the fiscal risk, but the chances of approval of the reforms the country needs are remote.

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