Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Dec 2015 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The recession, which deepened further in the third quarter, should continue in the last three months of the year, bringing the GDP contraction for 2015 to 4%. Given political uncertainty at the current exceptional levels, which hampers any attempt to change the country’s ruinous fiscal situation, the economy will continue decelerating in 2016, and GDP might fall a further 3%. Any significant recovery depends on a definition of the political situation. Only a government with substantial support for a thorough fiscal overhaul will be able to reverse expectations and make the profound changes needed in the economic structure – such as commercial opening, more flexible labor legislation, ample reform of the tax system and improvement of the regulatory framework for infrastructure investments.

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