Synthesis of the Brazilian economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Mar 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

While Brazil is experiencing the worst moments of the pandemic, without any outlook for improvement in the short run, the costs of the alliance of Bolsonaro with the Centrão are starting to appear, without any sign of the claimed benefits to the country. On the contrary, the vestiges of the liberal agenda initially promised by Paulo Guedes are rapidly falling by the wayside, with the dismantling of the remaining islands of efficiency in the government to open space for the president’s whims and/or the greed of the politicians coopted by him. The “success” of the new strategy can be measured by the increase of the country’s risk premium, which is reflected in the exchange rate and interest rates. With the aggravation of the pandemic, which has already claimed 253 thousand lives, at least three effects can be expected: another economic slowdown; additional decline of the president’s popularity; and the announcement of another round of the Emergency Relief program.  

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