Taking stock

TURKEY - Report 28 Jul 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The single essay of the politics section is dedicated to guessing when early elections will be held and how the timing would impact Minister Simsek-led Economic Stabilization Program. President Erdogan doesn’t have the votes to legislate a new constitution, thus the only method for him to bypass his term limit is to convince CHP to vote along with AKP for early elections.

Ozel has declared that CHP will only support a proposal for early elections, if they are scheduled for end-2025 or before. If Erdogan accepts this offer, the Economic Stabilization Program ought to be halted sometime between the first and second quarters of 2025, to grant the administration sufficient time for large-scale pork-barreling. An alternative scenario entails Erdogan and Ozel agreeing on an election date in 2026 or 2027, but Ozel’s ransom would be in the form of significantly higher social spending, which, too, would significantly dilute the Economic Stabilization Program.

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