Taming the Deficit

PANAMA - Forecast 04 Nov 2014 by Marco Fernandez and Guillermo Chapman
Executive Summary Though growth is slowing from its powerful 2012 peak of 10.8%, we are optimistic for 2014-2017, and project GDP CAGR at 6.5% (on the heels of 8.4% growth in 2013). The main reason for the slowdown is a fall in exports and fixed capital formation, as massive public investment and spending linked to Panama Canal expansion winds down. Services exports will suffer from slowing Canal revenues, and from the shock to Colon Free Zone activity (mainly due to FX limitations in Venezuela). Unemployment is expected to rise slightly. Interest rates may also rise. Both factors could dam...

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