Tensions rise after Israel assassinates Hamas and Hezbollah leaders

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 31 Jul 2024 by Justin Alexander

The conflicts underway in the Middle East saw further escalation yesterday as Israeli strikes killed a Hezbollah military leader, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, and then Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Iran. The killings demonstrated Israel’s substantial intelligence and military capability, along with Netanyahu’s willingness to cross red lines.

There is a significant risk of responses from Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran which, if they cause casualties, could be used to justify further escalation by Israel. The three interconnected actors have differing objectives and capacities and could act separately or in a coordinated fashion. The prospects of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza have declined (although there is a contrarian argument on this) and oil prices, which have been on a gradual decline for the last month, have received some modest support.

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