The 2021 GDP statistics revised up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Jan 2023 by Alexander Kudrin
At the very end of 2022 Rosstat announced it had revised the country's national accounts for 2021. So far, only the annual figures have been re-appraised. As quarterly data remain unchanged, they do not match yet annual statistics (Rosstat plans to revise quarterly national accounts in April). According to revised statistics, Russian GDP grew by 5.6% in 2022 and the nominal GDP reached R135.295 trln ($1.869 trln). Previously, growth rate was reported at 4.7% and nominal GDP was at R131.015 trln ($1.779 trln).Such a significant revision of the annual 2021 statistics raises many questions about Russia's economic performance in 2022, as the currently available quarterly national accounts for 9M22 will be affected. Growth rates may differ significantly, and apart from that one cannot rule out that Rosstat may also revise the currently available 2022 data, and they may also look better. So far, Rosstat has reported seasonally adjusted 0.4% Q-to-Q in 3Q22 and a 3.7% y-o-y contraction. Meanwhile, in 3Q22 household consumption reportedly contracted by a mere 2.9% y-o-y and also posted Q-to-Q growth of around 0.4%. These data are not immune from internal inconsistencies and are likely to be revised in the future. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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