The 2023 NFPS budget and third quarter fiscal data hide revenues and expenditures. The economy continues to accelerate.
The overall government budget for next year is US 27.6 billion. Because of the state accounting system in Panama, this figure includes US 3.2 billion for state-owned banks (which are independently managed and not subject in practical terms to budget restrictions), as well as US 3.5 billion in inter-agency transfers (that are primarily double-counted) that must be subtracted from the total. Of that, US 14.9 BB represents operating expenditures (including US 2.2 BB in interest payments but excludes US1.9 BB in subsidies and transfers to the Central Government), and US 4.8 BB (including US debt amortization of US 2.1 BB but excluding financial investments of the Social Security Agency). Current savings (US 1,373 BB) are 1.9% of the nominal GDP projected by the MEF (US 73.088 BB assuming 7.1% growth compared to 2022, lower than our estimate of 8%). Current savings finance 28% of investment. Gross financing is US 2.2 BB, including US 4.7 BB in external placements (US 3.5 BB in new foreign debt and US 1.2 BB in amortizations). The deficit/GDP ratio, according to MEF growth estimates, would be 3.4%, higher than the 3.0% the Fiscal Law requires. However, we do not anticipate major obstacles by the MEF in complying with the Law in 2023.
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