The 4th month of the war: working hard on degrading Russian military ability

UKRAINE - In Brief 26 Jun 2022 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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 Russians intensified missile attacks over the recent days. Near 40-50 missile strikes reported yesterday and 12 missiles attacks today in the morning. At least four hit the central area of Kyiv city with apartment blocks seriously damaged. More missile strikes – is a clear sign that something goes wrong for Russians. I guess after four months of observations we can claim it as a rule – the worse Russian forces feel at the front the more missiles are thrown to the mainland of Ukraine. I think someone will be able to prove this hypothesis based on a regression analysis later. In fact, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Siverskydonetsk – the town which passed from one hands to another for several weeks and is reported to be demolished by 90%. The potential withdrawal from Siverskydonetsk was seen as almost inevitable already a month ago given the concentration of Russian heavy artillery in this area but the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to buy extra time by bringing reinforcement to the town. As we read from reports, Ukrainian soldieries were very successful in damaging Russian proxies and Russian regular army in street fights and the General Staff decided to cause additional massive losses to Russians in Siverskydonetsk running regular counter-attacks. Soldiers have many places to hide from artillery on the streets of the town and feel much better than in the open space. This exercise proved to be very efficient in terms of diminishing Russian forces until the moment Russians made an advancement from the South of Lysychansk (they advanced near 5 km near Zolote) and the General Staff decided that it’s high time to stop playing chickens in Siverskydonet...