Politics: The administration’s political use of public spending and its implications both today and for the next government

MEXICO - Report 18 Sep 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The structure and distribution of the 2024 expenditure budget confirms a longstanding tradition of governments in Mexico and elsewhere of spending heavily for electoral purposes in the run-up to a major election year. The President's political priorities are perfectly expressed in the distribution of spending. By designated purpose, social development remains the most important item with 3.75 trillion pesos, a 265 billion peso increase over the 2023 budget despite the fact that such expanded allocations for social programs have not had a substantive effect in reducing poverty. Other priority recipients of major budget increases are the energy sector (subsidizing Pemex and the completion of Dos Bocas) and the military. Meanwhile, a broad range of ministries on which society depends for important public services will experience deep budget cuts as will the Judiciary, with which AMLO has been at war, especially since a new Supreme Court chief justice was chosen at the beginning of the year.

This week we analyze the political implications of the administration’s 2024 budget proposal and its implications for the government that will take office on October 1, 2024.

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