The business sector remains pessimistic, but slightly less

ISRAEL - In Brief 07 Dec 2023 by Jonathan Katz
The CBS Business Survey for November continues to point to contraction in activity with a net balance of -1.5 (-1.9 in Oct) for the present activity component (compared to +23 in Sept). The expectations for next month are still net negative (-11.75) but less than in Oct (-23), similar to the employment expectations: -9.9 following -14.65. Expectations for contraction continue but not quite as severe as before. Inflation expectations declined slightly to 2.95% from 3.02% last month. Looking specifically at the high-tech service sector we see expectations for a net decline in employment (-10.8) for the first time, while expectations for exports remain net positive (+6.6). These numbers come as no surprise due to the impact of the war, especially on construction and domestic services. A rate cut on January 1st will depend more on other factors: Nov’s CPI, the shekel and MPC growing concern regarding fiscal policy. Currently we are leaning towards rate stability in the next decision.

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