The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval Office showdown. But mounting pressure from U.S. public opinion and European leaders appears to have prompted a partial shift in Trump’s approach. Following another round of negotiations on March 11th in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the situation seemed to improve for Ukraine. The U.S. government finally directed its demands toward Russia, proposing a 30-day ceasefire and declaring that "the ball is now in Russia’s court." Still, the overall direction of U.S. policy—distancing itself from Ukraine and seeking rapprochement with Russia—has not changed. This is evident in the administration’s mild response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of the ceasefire proposal, and in Trump’s continued portrayal of the peace negotiations as making imaginary progress.
Putin’s goal is to allow Trump to withdraw from the region without facing a major backlash from U.S. voters or causing significant damage to relations with European leaders. For that reason, a temporary ceasefire could be arranged—just long enough for Trump to declare “victory,” and walk away. For Ukraine, the priority is to continue engaging with the MAGA team, signaling a willingness to discuss a ceasefire, while simultaneously strengthening its defense capabilities and urging EU leaders to ramp up weapons production. A new wave of Russian aggression appears inevitable once the U.S. pulls back.
Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff reported that Ukraine has agreed to hold wartime elections. This development poses significant risks for Ukraine. Moreover, such elections are highly likely to result in the re-election of Zelenskiy, as recent polls show a spike in his support following discussions about a wartime vote. While this may not be the most desirable outcome—given Ukraine’s genuine need for a political reset—wartime elections will likely be shaped more by the logic of war than by any need for democratic renewal.
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