Politics: The challenge AMLO's sweep poses

MEXICO - Report 09 Jul 2018 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Andrés Manuel López Obrador had been expected for some weeks to win the presidential contest this month, but how do we explain his sweep, as he carried all but one state, and racked up the largest margin of victory since Miguel de la Madrid’s election in 1982? Or the electoral collapse of two of what had been the country’s three major parties for decades (the incumbent PRI and the PRD), and the PAN’s loss of almost three million votes compared to 2012?

Our exit polls confirmed AMLO was the main beneficiary of the deep levels of discontent seen throughout the country regarding the state of the economy, the extent of both insecurity and corruption, and the dismal job outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto has been doing during his nearly six years in office.

López Obrador’s campaign also had long coattails as his coalition’s candidates won absolute majorities in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, at least five and possibly six of the governorships in play, a majority of seats in 17 of the 27 state legislatures on the ballot, and crucial municipal contests.

The magnitude of AMLO’s sweep leaves him in a uniquely powerful position, but one that is also rife with risks. Although many voters turned their back on traditional parties out of a sense of disappointment with their performance in office, they were also motivated to go to the polls by the sense of hope generated by the winning camp’s promises to significantly improve the lives of the Mexican people.

Those voters expect their living conditions to improve in a relatively short period of time, and with such clear majorities in Congress there are no obvious excuses López Obrador could cite if he doesn’t start to deliver, and soon, on the promises made in this campaign. It is not yet clear how he intends to wield the enormous power he gained July 1, but expectations are on the scale of his electoral victory. The disillusionment may prove proportional to the hopes that could be dashed in the coming months and years.

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