Politics: The Challenges Facing the PAN in 2018
The latest polling continues to suggest that next year’s presidential race will be mainly between Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and the eventual nominee of the National Action Party (PAN), with at least one poll showing the latter party with a five-point edge 16 months before the vote. Moreover, it is now showing the highest voting intentions, eclipsing the incumbent PRI, which historically has had the biggest and most loyal core base of voters. But while López Obrador is assured of being his party’s candidate, the PAN must still go through what is shaping up to be a highly contentious nomination battle that if mishandled could deeply divide the party’s supporters and weaken it so badly in the general contest that it would not likely be able to defeat AMLO.
There are currently two people who have declared their intention to be the PAN nominee (poll leader Margarita Zavala and Rafael Moreno Valle), but National Party Chairman Ricardo Anaya is widely assumed to be the favorite given his control over the party machine and the constant media presence that post affords him. But Zavala, who is especially well liked among PAN voters, could possibly launch an independent campaign and take many PAN supporters with her if she believes that the nomination contest is stacked against her. Furthermore, the party will need to line up the support of three potential coalition partners (PES, MC and PRD) and make inroads into the growing swath of non partisan voters that tend to abstain, favor independent candidates or choose a lesser-evil from among the existing parties other than the PRI.
Both Anaya and Zavala tend to be seen favorably by voters — even more than AMLO — but they will have to deal with the fact that the PAN was in power for 12 years before disappointed voters turned it out of office five years ago for its poor record on fighting corruption, improving public security and handling the economy.
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