Politics: The complicated relationship between violence, organized crime, elections and the US

MEXICO - Report 31 Jul 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Four and a half years into President López Obrador’s administration criminal violence endures as the toughest challenge facing the country. Even before AMLO took office that view was shared by well over 40% of registered voters, a perception that faded throughout the Covid-19 pandemic as people were confronted with pressing economic challenges. However, three recent polls show that for the first time since 2018 more than 50% of respondents cite security as the greatest problem facing Mexico.

That hardly comes as a surprise. Despite the 13% cumulative drop in intentional homicides registered in 2021 and 2022, almost 160,000 such deaths have occurred during AMLO’s administration, the vast majority a product of organized crime. During that time an average of 95 people were murdered each day, or one every 15 minutes. Moreover, slightly more than 44,000 persons have been disappeared, a phenomenon often crueler for their relatives, uncertain as to whether their loved ones may still be alive while they suffer indifference and mistreatment on the part of prosecutors who ought to be investigating and searching for the disappeared.

President López Obrador’s "hugs, not bullets" public security policy is viewed as a total failure and is also having a major impact on relations with the United States, as both Democrats and Republicans in Washington perceive that AMLO's government has failed in terms of security and the fight against drug trafficking. This conclusion was underscored by DEA Director Anne Milgram’s recent assessment of the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels and their international reach. There is no doubt that the US government will increasingly step up pressure on both AMLO's government and whatever government takes office next year to dismantle these two organizations. What could vary is the degree of co-responsibility and actual coordination, depending on who becomes US president in January 2025.

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