The cost of the war to Russia one year on

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 23 Feb 2023 by Alex Teddy

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In February 2022 about 190,000 Russians invaded Ukraine. Later mobilizations and Wagner fighters often recruited from prisons boosted these numbers. Western officials have estimated 180,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian military casualties. Russia gave its death toll as 6,000 in September 2022. Open sources provide evidence of 14,000 military deaths. The UN has confirmed 8,000 Ukrainian civilian deaths, and Ukraine estimates it at double that. Russian bank profits are down, and the budget deficit is growing. Russia claims its economy shrank only 2% in 2022. Oil and gas revenues are falling. But the IMF estimates Russia's economy will grow in 2023. Over 1,000 foreign companies have exited Russia, particularly American and British companies. But many Western companies remain in the country. Perhaps some companies that have left will come back. Russia is finding ways to work around the sanctions. Over 8 million Ukrainians have fled the country and others are internally displaced. Most have gone to the EU. Over 500,000 Russians have left Russia: mostly young men. Russian politicians are considering whether to penalize emigres or to offer incentives to return. The main destinations are Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Serbia and Turkey. Russia has blocked 200,000 websites and arrested 21,000 anti-war activists.