The current account and the trade surpluses narrow in May, albeit still remain wide

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Jun 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
As in the aftermath of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the CBR stopped publishing detailed information on foreign trade regularly. It now provides monthly only a few numbers related to Russia’s current account and foreign trade balances. The regulator reported that in 5M22, the estimated current account surplus widened to $110.3 bn, and the trade surplus increased to $124.0 bn. In 4M22, the same figures were $95.8 bn and$106.5 bn, while in 1Q22, they were $58.2 bn and $66.3 bn accordingly. If so, then it appears that after a massive widening of these balances in April, they narrowed considerably in May and reached $14.5 bn and $17.5 bn, which is narrower than the 1Q22 monthly averages. Most likely, the narrowing originated from the two main factors – Russia’s exports in May decreased compared to April, while imports started to rebound gradually. These changes likely reflect the initial period of re-orientation of Russia’s foreign trade from the West to the East. It looks as though more imports started coming from Asia as the Western trade flows are seemingly seriously cut. Given that the CBR stopped publishing detailed monthly information on foreign trade, including volumes of exports and imports, more details may appear in mid-July after a very aggregate 2Q22 balance of payments statistics is published. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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