The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Dec 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just published net accounts without disclosing its estimate of exports, imports, and income flows. Earlier, the CBR reported that October exports fell to about $33.0 bn from $40.4 bn in September. Imports declined in October compared to November ($23.5 bn vs $24.8) as well. It looks as though imports should not have changed much in November, while exports could have contracted moderately last month. The current account surplus reached bn $50.5 in 11M23, and in 2023, as a whole, it could be about $60 bn. The trade surplus accounted for $109.0 bn, while the services balance was in deficit ($29.0 bn in 11M23 and $1.8bn in November alone). The income balance was also negative ($29.5 bn and $2.4 bn over the same periods). Note that in 2021, the income balance was more negative (about $50 bn). All in all, Russia’s balance of payments looks stable.