The current account surplus widens in 2Q22

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 26 Sep 2022 by Alexander Kudrin

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The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. Neither income nor services balance changed much this year relative to 2021. The main change occurred with the trade balance, particularly on the export side. As domestic household demand remained relatively weak this year (albeit expanding gradually), imports of goods increased moderately in 1H22 (to $20.732 bn) compared to 1H21 ($17.882 bn). It was materially different in the case of exports which reached in 1H22 $42.367 bn, while in 1H21, they stood at $27.021 bn. The trade balance widened to $21.635 bn in 1H22, i.e., by over a factor of two relative to 1H21 when it was at $9.149 bn. In 1H21, the current account deficit equaled $2.722 bn. As the oil price fell in 3Q22 and is unlikely to rise in 4Q22, Kazakhstan’s current account and trade balances will narrow. Though in 2022 as a whole, the current account surplus will remain very strong, albeit not necessarily as strong as in 2011 when it hit a historical record and reached $10.198 bn. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin