The disqualification of Senator Poe

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 03 Dec 2015 by Romeo Bernardo

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"Increased uncertainty" is becoming a common refrain among political analysts these days. We are hearing it again following a disqualification decision Tuesday against Senator Grace Poe by a 3-member division of the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The ruling is on one of four disqualification cases filed with the Comelec seeking to cancel the Senator's certificate of candidacy for the 2016 presidential election. These cases mainly argue that the Senator does not meet the eligibility requirements on citizenship ("natural born") and residency (10 years) set in the Constitution for the presidency. Below our takeaways: 1. Although Senator Poe intends to file an appeal with the Comelec en banc, analysts are not optimistic that she will succeed. After all, the Comelec is composed of only 7 commissioners. With 3 of them having already voted against her in the first case, it would only require another like-minded commissioner to uphold the disqualification. 2. Thus, the battleground will shift to the 15-man Supreme Court which will have the final say. There, while 3 justices have ruled against the Senator's "natural born" status in an earlier case (see post "Game Changer"), the odds are not as bad as with the Comelec. And as we noted in our last Quarterly Report, the Supreme Court is not apolitical and in the past, has opted not to substitute the opinions of 15 men for the collective judgment of millions of citizens. 3. The people's will may perhaps be gleaned from the next round of voter surveys. Heretofore the frontrunner, if the Senator's poll numbers hold up despite recent setbacks - both the disqualification decision and the surprise entry of Mayor Rodrigo Duterte - he...