The Economy Comes First
The rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble and unexpected actions by the Central Bank undermined popular trust in the government and persuaded Russians to convert ruble savings into other currencies or buy consumer goods. So far, only a small segment of Russians, those with significant savings have been affected, but given that economic challenges are likely to continue, political support may also shift.
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny was given a second suspended sentence in a manner that indicates authorities expect mass protests in his support and are using every opportunity to avoid them. The challenging economic situation may further fuel opposition support.
The Russian leadership has clearly demonstrated that if there is a space for compromise regarding the Ukrainian crisis, it will not affect the status of Crimea, which became a part of the Russian Federation. However, that may be different for Eastern Ukraine’s self-proclaimed Novorossiya.
Russians have not yet entirely felt the economic downturn because there has been no increase in unemployment so far. Unemployment expectations are currently far from what they were during points of the 2008-2009 economic crisis.
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