The Economy in 2014: Projections And Risks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 17 Mar 2014 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore

Executive Summary A combination of wishful thinking and diagnostic mistakes has put the government in a situation, in an election year, of weak economic growth and high inflation. The outlook for 2014 is weaker GDP growth than last year, of only 1.5%, and inflation rising to around 6.3% at year-end. The low primary surpluses and reluctance to use the interest rate to bring inflation down to the central target of 4.5% have raised the likelihood of increases in taxes and real interest rates after de election, heightening the risks and discouraging investments, both of which will contribute to...

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