The Economy in Pictures, in 2022

TURKEY - Report 23 Dec 2022 by Murat Ucer

After a relatively strong first half, growth stalled in Q3, q/q, driven by weakness in net exports, but consumption remained strong. Further weakness is likely in Q4, but GDP might have nevertheless expanded by some 5% in the year.

Inflation was the main casualty of 2022, which should end the year around 65%, up from 36.1% at end-2021 – a level last seen in the late 1990s/early 2000s. TL weakness, food and energy shocks, deeply negative real rates, wage-price spiral, unhinged inflation expectations -- and the attendant worsening in pricing behavior -- are largely to blame.

As the CBRT delivered the Palace’s long-sought fancy of single digit interest rates against a terribly inflationary backdrop, balance sheet interventions have become the key tool for sustaining “financial repression”.

Now read on...

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