The Evolution of the fiscal picture

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Apr 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The central government’s primary result has improved markedly in the past few months, with the deficit going from 3.2% of GDP in October to 1.6% of GDP in February. However, virtually all the improvement in that span was based on non-recurring revenues, while the recurring primary result continues in the black to the tune of 3% of GDP (Graph 1). Only a small improvement can be attributed to factors that will repeat in the future, such as the increase in fuel taxes. There are also incipient signs of stronger revenues in relation to GDP, but for now these are only tenuous indications when disregarding non-recurrent revenues and tax increases.

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