The Fog of the War: Understanding Broader Battlefield Realities

UKRAINE - In Brief 19 Jan 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I present below is simply a structured set of observations drawn from publicly available official reports, comments from military professionals on social media, and private conversations. No classified or insider information is included. The first notable trend we observe is that the Russians have significantly reduced their use of heavy armor, such as tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles, in their regular assaults. This is reflected in a noticeable decline in the number of destroyed units of such equipment (tanks, artillery and armored vehicles). The long-discussed issue of Russia running out of military hardware is becoming increasingly evident on the battlefield. Throughout the full-scale invasion, the Russians have been restoring old tanks and other equipment from warehouses, but these reserves now appear to be depleted, leading to a clear shortage of heavy armor. Each additional day of the war exacerbates this problem, and supplies from North Korea do not seem sufficient to fully address the shortfall. The shortage of heavy military equipment has not stopped the gradual advancement of Russian forces in the east. The Russians continue to push forward with 'meat assaults,' suffering enormous losses (more than 1500 killed or wounded per day). The Ukrainian army has been unable to halt this slow advance due to brigades being depleted of personnel, exhausted after three years ...