The future of China after the 20th Party Conference

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 04 Oct 2022 by Andrew Collier

The Party conference on October 16 is likely to solidify Xi Jinping’s power. How much power will depend on who is appointed to senior positions. It is important to watch closely whether younger potential successors are named to the standing committee and other related positions. The degree of Xi’s power in his third term will affect his ability to execute his priority objectives: anti-corruption; economic de-risking; distribution of income; and strengthening the Party. Despite his rising power, Xi will be restricted in his ability to maneouver by structural issues: economic decline, a deflating property bubble, high debt, weak fiscal financials, and a difficult global economy. Decoupling, caused mainly by Xi’s own policies, will continue, further eroding his options.

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