Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January

MEXICO - In Brief 01 Apr 2025 by Francisco González
The Global Indicator of Economic Activity recorded zero annual growth in January and a -0.2% monthly decline with seasonally adjusted figures The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) showed no annual growth in January 2025, following declines in October and December of the previous year and a very weak increase in November. As a result, the October-January average contracted by -0.1%. In January, the agricultural sector posted an annual increase of 14.6%, after a -6.9% drop in December, reflecting high volatility since 2023. Meanwhile, the industrial sector fell -2.8% annually in January, driven by significant contractions in mining (-8.6%) and construction (-6.4%). Manufacturing also declined by -0.9%, following a -0.3% drop in the previous quarter’s average. Although manufacturing may have seen a slight rebound in February due to short-term export growth—following the suspension of tariffs—domestically focused manufacturing will likely have remained weak. GRAPH 1 IGAE: Main sectors and subsectors, January 2025, (seasonally ajdusted % chg. YoY) Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados Services sector continues to register a slowing trend, growing just 1.0% annually, with stagnation in key areas such as restaurants and hotels and a decline in wholesale trade. The services sector grew 1.0% year-over-year in January, continuing the slowdown trend that began last year. Weak growth was seen in restaurants and hotels (0.1%) and transport, postal, and warehousing (0.3%), while wholesale trade fell (-4.7%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the IGAE declined by -0.2%, due to a drop in industry (-0.4%), while services stagnated...

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