The IMF is unhappy

UKRAINE - In Brief 20 Jun 2018 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Yesterday the IMF finally made a statement on recent developments around the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC). Christine Lagarde outlined four points to be completed for the fourth review of the program: approval of the supplementary law to formally establish the HACC;amendments to the law on HACC, authorizing the HACC to adjudicate all cases under its jurisdiction, including all appeals of relevant first instance court decisions;gas prices’ increase;the budget; Unless the final point about the budget, I would say that the deal is more or less on track. However, adding the fourth point automatically complicates the whole story. We have elections on the horizon meaning that budgeting process is unlikely to go smoothly. Local players take note of the IMF but their political future worries them much more. Against this backdrop we can easily see new spending plan finalized only in December. How it goes with new wire at the stage when the EFF program expires in March 2019 – God knows. It looks like we gradually drift towards a ‘no IMF’ scenario.