The Kazakh economy keeps growing at around 3% with no surprises

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Nov 2022 by Alexander Kudrin

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The country's Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 10M22 the short-term indicator grew by 3.1% y-o-y delivering no major surprises – as opposed to smaller and less industrialized countries, such as Georgian and Armenia, where an inflow of Russians had much more visible effect. According to an estimate from the statistical agency Kazakhstan's GDP in 9M22 was up by 2.8% y-o-y.Some sectors, such as agriculture and communications reported very strong y-o-y growth in 10M22 (8.2% and 7.1%). Others, such as transportation and trade, delivered less impressive y-o-y growth over the same period (3.9% and 4/1%). The trade sector includes both the wholesale and the retail segments. Retail sales grew y-o-y by 1.4% in 10M22 and by 0.8% in October.Construction was up by 5.0% in 10M22. Industry grew by a mere 1.4% y-o-y over the same period, while in October alone, it was down by 5.3% due to the still unimpressive performance of the mining sector. The latter was down in October by 10.8% but up by 0.1% in 10M22 (both figures are y-o-y). The performance in the mining sectors was poor particularly due to unimpressive performance in the oil and gas segments. Manufacturing was up y-o-y by 1.6% an 4.6% in October and 10M22, and it is worth remembering that in 4Q21 the performance in industry in general was very strong and growth accelerated. Hence, a strong base effect in 4Q22.The base effect was equally strong in retail trade, and in October it could have been down y-o-y, but an inflow of Russians kept it in positive territory. Despite persistently high inflation, seasonally adjusted retail sales were up m-o-m in October. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin