The latest polls continue to show Flávio Bolsonaro with a slight advantage, Lula invited Flávio to join him at the TSE today to disclose their confidential records, and Lula is using the presidency in his favor

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Oct 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

A Quaest poll released yesterday (Oct. 21) shows a statistical tie with four days to go before the runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 45% of voting intentions, compared with 44% for Lula (PT). Two other polls released yesterday also show Flávio ahead. In the Gerp poll, he has 53% of valid votes, compared with 47% for Lula. In the Futura poll, the margin is narrower: 51.1% to 48.9%, versus 50.4% to 49.6% in Monday’s (Oct. 19) survey. Yesterday, President Lula invited Flávio Bolsonaro to join him at the headquarters of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today at 11:00 a.m. local time so that both could authorize the disclosure of their respective confidential records. Yesterday, Flávio informed the TSE that he is willing to release his records from the past 20 years. Lula is using the powers of the presidency in the final stretch of the campaign. Yesterday, he signed into law a measure forgiving tax debts owed by individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs).

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