The limited Iranian strikes at Israel were as expected, the next steps are more uncertain

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 14 Apr 2024 by Justin Alexander

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Last night, April 13, Iran launched around 300 drones and missiles toward Israel. These are significant as the first attacks from Iranian territory (and possibly by Iranian forces directly) in nearly a half-century of enmity. Until now, Iran has merely provided support to allies across the region such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraqi Shia militia. During this period, Israel has repeatedly attacked Iran, including assassinations and sabotage on its soil related to its nuclear program, air strikes on its soldiers in Syria and a reported attack on a ship linked to the IRGC in the Red Sea in 2021. However, the 1 April strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, which killed about 16 Iranians, including senior military officers, was a significant escalation and a response had been widely expected to prevent Iran from appearing "weak", hence the frantic diplomatic campaign last week urging Iran to show restraint. The only questions were what form that response would be and the subsequent military and diplomatic repercussions. Iran has repeatedly signaled during the Gaza war that it does not seek a direct conflict with Israel, and the US and my baseline expectation was that it would respond in a visible way that showed force but aimed to avoid escalation. At the same time, there are competing trends within Iran, some of which are more bellicose and less rational, and so there was a significant risk of miscalibration. Without detailed data and military knowledge, it is hard to assess what the launches from Iran might have been intended to achieve militarily. However, the scale of the Israeli and US air defenses are well known and have been repeatedly tested by Hamas – wh...