The little book of silver linings

TURKEY - Forecast 15 Dec 2023 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Since the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, there has been visible improvement in policies, which led to tangible gains, more so than we had expected. Among others, the CBRT reserves have improved, as the so-called “KKM” accounts have declined notably; the budget deficit is set to finish the year at less than half the estimate in the Medium-Term Program, and growth has slowed sharply in the third quarter, along with some rebalancing in composition of demand.

So, where do we go from here? How long will this positive momentum continue? What will the macroeconomics of 2024 look like? These are tough questions no doubt, which we will keep pondering in the months to come, but leaving politics, geopolitics and the “unknown unknowns” aside, we basically see two risks on the macro front.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This forecast is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This forecast is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this forecast or its contents.