The longest and deepest cycle in Brazil’s history

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Sep 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The GDP result for the second quarter reinforces our projection that the economy will only grow by 1.0% in 2018. However, the second-quarter performance cannot be attributed wholly to the truckers’ strike. It unquestionably played a role, but the most recent numbers confirm that after the effects of the strike were absorbed, the economy has been unable to gain traction. In particular, it is clear from the data that there are no signs of a fixed capital investments recovery, the most important driving force in a cyclical recovery phase. On the contrary, the investment rate declined again, and now stands near its lowest level since the beginning of the series in 1996.

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