The Lukoil case: Zelensky is shooting back at Orbán, but beware of the ocean of false information on the subject

HUNGARY - In Brief 20 Jul 2024 by Istvan Racz

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Starting two days ago, Ukraine stopped transiting crude oil shipments from Russia's Lukoil through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline towards the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. This is because Lukoil was put on Ukraine's sanction list by a presidential decree issued in late June. This measure did not affect shipments from other Russian suppliers of oil, most notable Tatneft (as Rosneft had been sanctioned by the Ukrainian government already prior to this latest measure). We understand this as a political move, the Ukrainian government's retaliating against PM Orbán's persistent blockage of EU payments for European arms exports to their country. It may be seen as a warning about how much complication Ukraine can cause Hungary in response to the complication the latter is causing Ukraine. The consequences are not fatal in either case, as Hungary is eventually unable to prevent the said EU action, and Ukraine is unable to block the flow of oil into Hungary in the amount the latter requires. However, both countries could cause a lot of harm to the other one if the problem between the two is not sorted out. A bit of explanation is required on the details, especially as an exceptionally great amount of false information has been spread publicly (only God knows exactly for what reason). So: Hungary imported 6.2 million metric tons of crude oil in 2023, of which roughly 4mt was Russian oil, all of the latter transported through Druzhba. (This means 333 thousand tons a month, against some reports about 450tht of such imports.) In January-April, total Hungarian oil imports fell by 16.5% yoy because domestic output was increased, consumption fell moderately, and t...