The Moment of Truth

COLOMBIA - Forecast 23 Feb 2015 by Veronica Navas and Mauricio Santa Maria

Executive Summary This is likely to be a transition year for Colombia: the economy’s vulnerabilities will become apparent toward yearend, as reduced oil income subtracts from government revenues. Four crucial elements will determine the country’s path to recovery: first, oil and commodity price trends, now hitting the Colombian and Latin American economies; second, the health of public finances; third, the health of the financial sector and the level of corporate indebtedness; and lastly, household consumption, employment and debt. This report presents three scenarios for Colombia in 2015 t...

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