The mood music and stark realities

TURKEY - Report 16 Mar 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither deter the main opposition party CHP from pressing for early elections, nor visibly raise Erdogan’s chances of winning the next presidential contest.

In Syria, developments are largely going Turkey’s way, with Syrian Kurds signing a surprising agreement with president pro temAhmed al Sharaa, involving a complete transfer of their administrative bodies and the military to the central government. In theory, this should give Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli enough ammo to reduce voter antagonism to do a deal with pro-Kurdish Party DEM at home. As always, the devil is in the detail, however, with the crucial detail in this topic being no clear timeline for PKK and Syrian Kurds to disarm, meaning that breaking down voter resistance to constitutional talks remains a formidable obstacle.

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