The Morning After: The Panama Papers, the Waked Affair and the Challenges to the Banking Sector
The Monthly Economic Activity Index climbed by a surprising 5.2% y/y in May, and 4.2% for the first five months of the year, compared with the same period in 2015. That’s good news, coming on the heels of the Panama Papers and Waked Affair scandals, though the IMAE continues to show a persistent slowdown.
Unemployment reached 5.6% in March, 4 pp above its August 2015 rate. This figure does not reflect the impact of the Waked Affair scandal in employment in the commercial sector, linked to the shutdown of several outlets in Panama City. We are forecasting unemployment at 5.7% this year.
The government has proposed a $16.191 billion NFPS budget, an increase of $1.2 billion, or 7.8%, from 2016. The proposal projects a NFPS unadjusted deficit of $2.654 billion, or 4.5% of GDP in 2017, 6.3% lower than this year’s budget. However, taking into account the difference between 3.5% of nominal GDP and the effective cash transfer of the Panama Canal Authority to the central government (the so-called “deficit adjustment”), the projected NFPS adjusted deficit will meet the Fiscal Social Responsibility Law ceiling of 1% of GDP.
After uncertainty over the continuity of the multiparty alliance in Congress between the governing Panameñista Party and rebellious members of the PRD and CD (former President Ricardo Martinelli’s party), PRD legislator Ruben de León was reelected president. Miguel Salas, a systems engineer with a MBA and a member of the ruling party, was elected president of the important budget committee.
According to the latest opinion poll by Dichter & Neira, released in July, President Juan Carlos Varela’s approval increased has risen 3 pp to 40%, though that was still down from 57% last year.
Varela in June surprisingly vetoed a proposal to amend Law 22 of 2006, regarding public procurement, which was aimed at enhancing transparency in government acquisition of goods and services.
The integration of the banking system into the international markets is no longer guaranteed. In part due to recent scandals in Panama, and to the overall de-risking of some large international correspondent banks, the flow of funds to small and medium banks may be in jeopardy. The Panamanian banking authorities are suggesting that a major consolidation of the system is forthcoming.
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