The NBU keeps policy rate unchanged at 18%

UKRAINE - In Brief 14 Dec 2018 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
On Dec 13, the NBU Board decided to leave policy rate unchanged at 18.0%. The Board ignored Kerch Strait crisis and treated easily still strong inflation (+1.4% m/m or 10% y/y) sine the large part of November CPI growth was driven by a 23.5% gas tariffs’ increase. Positive signals from the IMF (the IMF Executive Board scheduled Ukraine for Dec 18) as well as strengthening national currency made the NBU confident that everything is under control. I do not see any chance for policy rate cut over the nearest future since elections are on agenda and a lot of nervousness will be in the air. The NBU will have to keep monetary policy tight. Most likely we will see another ‘no change decision’ on January 31, 2019 when the NBU Board will meet next time.

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