The New Projection for GDP Growth and Other Perspectives for 2021

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 May 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

We have altered our projection for growth in 2021 to 4%. Although significantly higher than the previous projection (of 3.2%), the result is due only to the behavior of the IBC-Br, real retail sales and industrial production, which instead of the expected decline, indicated slight GDP growth in the first quarter. We have not changed our outlook for the subsequent quarters. Despite the strong impulse from exports, which particularly favor agriculture and mining, the uncertainties (economic and political) are acting to discourage investments, and consumption has to fight against the negative effects of the pandemic and the slow and intermittent vaccination program. As observed in previous reports, the country is facing an economic cycle different from all others, making the traditional projection models obsolete and recommending caution. In the rest of this report, we review the latest data and evaluate the perspectives for growth in the coming quarters.

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