The other deficit

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Sep 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The balance of payments has been marked by a rapid increase in the current account deficit, while the financial account remains relatively stable. Most of the deterioration in the current account stems from rising imports in a context of demand pressures, but there is also a worsening in some service balance categories, which could prove more persistent.

The situation is aggravated by U.S. tariffs. Our estimates indicate that Brazilian exports to the United States of tariffed products in August were about 25% below the average of the past year. Manufactured goods are expected to be the most affected, with an estimated impact on exports between -US$ 1.9 billion and -US$ 6.3 billion.

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