The Performance of GDP in the Fourth Quarter of 2013

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Feb 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The GDP growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1) came as a surprise: it was above the most optimistic projections. In contrast, GDP contracted in the third quarter by 0.5%. With this, growth in 2013 reached 2.3%. The main surprise was gross fixed capital formation, which instead of the large decline assumed in the great majority of projections, including ours, rose 0.3% in the quarter. However, the performance of investments in the fourth quarter does nothing to change the outlook for very modest GDP growth in 2014, which according to the projections based on the latest information will be around 1.5%.

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