The political consequences of President Lula's health

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 11 Dec 2024 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

President Lula's health, following a delicate surgery, raises reflections on the institutional and political implications across different scenarios. In this report, we analyze the potential consequences in cases of temporary or permanent replacement of the President, including scenarios of the president’s remaining in office, with full recovery; temporary replacement (presidential leave); and prolonged leave.

President Lula’s health is being closely watched both in Brazil and internationally. While the current scenario suggests stability, presidential succession in Brazil is well-defined by the Constitution, with clear mechanisms to ensure administrative continuity. However, leadership plays a central role in Brazil’s political system. Notably, Lula's absence weakens the government’s capacity to dialogue with Congress and challenges the presidential team to manage a complex and contentious agenda between the branches of government.

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