The Pulse of Economic Activity
With some data on the first quarter now known, such as industrial output, along with some information on the carry over to the third quarter and the year as a whole, it is clear that the contraction of GDP this year will be less than the 7.5% projected previously. If we assume the possibility that recovery in the third quarter will continue, the performance of GDP in 2020 might be somewhat better. But in light of the huge uncertainty coming from the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil, which has not yet shown signs of easing, along with doubt about how the economy will react to the unfolding of the pandemic, we do not feel comfortable to formulate hypotheses for a new projection, no matter how plausible they may seem a priori. Therefore, in this report we limit ourselves to a critical discussion of the pulse of the economy, to indicate some possible paths.
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