The Reform Package: Appears Decidedly Half-Empty

TURKEY - In Brief 30 Sep 2013 by Atilla Yesilada

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I defer a Market Brief on Erdogan’s Reform Package till Tuesday, because of what I stated in the Weekly Tracker:“The content of the reform initiative is not the most relevant issue about its impact on Turkey’s fractious political landscape. It is the reception by Kurds and Alevites that count here.  The minority political class and the masses they represent may react differently to RP. Kurds are already enjoying an economic renaissance in the 13 provinces where they constitute a majority thanks to the cessation ofinsurgency. A few nods and minor yet concrete advances in their direction could persuade them to give Erdogan the benefit of doubt and time to try again after the March local elections. The same goes for the centrist Alevite majority which would presumably get green light to build more of their temples (cemevi) as well as funds to train more pastors, which is sorely needed. They, too, may consider this RP the opening act of a more humane AKP rather than the last offer on their station in the society”. As expected, the contents of the RF were immediately denounced by Kurdish and Alevite leaders.  But, by tomorrow we should see how the masses react to it.Is there any reason for hope that RP will be embraced by the minorities:  Alevites got nothing, so they are very likely to join the Gezi people. Kurds got a few advancements, like Kurdish langue education in private schools, but none of their main demands. We shall see in a few days how they assess the progress.Erdogan’s promise to debate alternatives to the current electoral system which imposes a 10% barrier  to qualify for the parliament is possibly fruitful, but the choices he laid on the table essentially t...