The Resistence of Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Feb 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The fate of those who make projections is that the target rarely stands still. At the start of 2015, the consensus was that inflation would remain high due to the coming adjustments of administered prices, which were repressed, after which it would start to decline. The projections at that moment were that the 12-month IPCA would reach a peak in the third quarter of 2015 and then start to fall. So far, however, the “target” has continued to move upward. Now in the middle of February, the IPCA has hit a new peak, accumulating an increase of 10.7% over the preceding 12 months. While it seems likely that inflation will cool somewhat in the coming months, there are risks in the other direction.

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