The revised statistics suggested seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP grew Q-o-Q

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Dec 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
According to Rosstat’s revised numbers, the Russian GDP contracted in 3Q22 not by 4.0% as an earlier flash estimate showed, but by 3.7%. Rosstat also showed that the seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP was up versus the previous quarter (around 0.4%). It means that technically, Russia was not yet in recession as in 1Q22, and the economy continued to expand in the previous periods. Agriculture, construction, financial services, government administration, and the defense posted strong growth in 3Q22. The mining sector was flat, and manufacturing was down by 2.4% y-o-y. Wholesale and retail sales dropped by nearly 20%, while transport fell by around 4% (in 3Q22 y-o-y).Slightly better statistics for 3Q22 suggests that GDP could contract in 2022, not as much as the official government view offered somewhat ten days ago (-2.9%), as October statistics pointed to no deterioration of the economic situation in the country. Scattered reports suggest that skies have not fallen yet either in November or the first two weeks of December. The Russian president mentioned on December 15, that the GDP could fall by 2.5% this year. Based on slightly better economic data in 3Q22 and possibly in 4Q22, one may expect no GDP contraction in 2023 (assuming no catastrophic geopolitical shocks next year). So far, the government expects the GDP to fall by 0.9% in 2023. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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