The Weakening of the Labor Market According to Three Data Sources

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Jun 2015 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The result of the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) published last week strengthens the perception that the job market is getting weaker. The PME estimates the figures on employment in the formal and informal sectors in six metropolitan regions, and according to the latest results the 12-month growth of the occupied population has been in negative territory since the start of 2013. Additionally, so far in 2015 the average level of nominal wages has been declining steeply. The other two data sources have national coverage: CAGED and the continuous PNAD. Although they also clearly indicate a weakening labor market, the movements have different intensities. In this note we examine what has been happening according to these three series, with the caveat that the data from the PME and CAGED extend through May 2015 while the PNADC figures only cover through the first quarter.

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