The week of fear and loathing

TURKEY - Report 12 Aug 2018 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The authors of this note agree that Turkey is on the verge of a historic moment, where the outcome entirely depends on President Erdogan’s “reaction function”. Neither of us are trained in clinical psychiatry or mind-reading, which means that our interpretations of what the Great Leader might be thinking are likely to differ. Truth is more elusive than ever and the hazards of misleading our audience with a false consensus among us is too great to ignore. Thus, we have decided to issue two separate essays below, which approach the question from somewhat different angles and reach (inevitably very tentative) conclusions of different color.

Atilla Yesilada thinks President Erdogan has a plan to take us through November, as he details in the first section below. Murat Ucer is somewhat more skeptical -- and worried, as he responds briefly in the following section.

We hope to present our views, take your questions and clarify our positions further, which are admittedly evolving as we speak, at Wednesday’s joint phone conference.

Now read on...

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